Estonia vs Bulgaria Predictions, Stats and Betting Tips

Estonia v Bulgaria - Nations League predictions and stats
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Estonia vs Bulgaria

Mon 16 Nov, 17:00 · Nations League

Stats cover Last 20 matches, not all in one competition – Estonia 8 in the Nations League and 12 across three others, Bulgaria 8 in the Nations League and 12 across three others

Goals

0.80Scored per game1.20
1.55Conceded per game2.25
Home gamesAway games
0.50Scored1.60
1.38Conceded2.20
Correct Score 1-05/1

On the venue splits this projects Estonia 1.27 against Bulgaria 1.32, and 1-0 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 11.1%.

Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call – it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs Estonia, which is where the board has the match too.

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Expected Goals

0.72xG for0.67
1.50xG against1.93
+0.08Goals vs xG+0.53

Under and Over

60%Over 1.5 goals85%
40%Over 2.5 goals70%
30%Over 3.5 goals35%
Over 2.5 Goals11/8

Estonia are expected 1.35 at home and Bulgaria 1.49 away, so 2.84 in the match. Our numbers make it 54% against the 42% the price implies.

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Both Teams to Score

45%Both teams scored45%
6 of 20Clean sheets3 of 20
9 of 20Failed to score9 of 20
Both Teams to Score6/5

Both sides are expected to score – 1.35 and 1.49. Our numbers make it 57% against the 45% the price implies.

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Shots

7.88Shots per game7.79
3.06On target per game2.57
38.8%Accuracy33.0%

Corners

2.94Won per game2.93
2.00First half0.93
68.0%Share before the break31.7%
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Cards and Fouls

4.25Cards in the match4.43
2.25Own cards per game2.29
1.25Cards by half time2.14
14.25Fouls committed12.14

Shooting Detail

4.44Shots inside the box4.71
3.44Shots outside the box3.07
2.81Off target3.29
2.00Blocked1.93

Big Chances

1.00Big chances created1.14
0.62Big chances missed0.79
38%Taken31%
12.25Touches in the box12.07

Record

4-7-9Won, drawn, lost4-4-12
6 of 20Clean sheets3 of 20
9 of 20Failed to score9 of 20

Possession

40.06%Average share40.14%

Player Props

Per 90
PlayerMinsShotsOn targetFoulsFouledTacklesCards
Michael Schjonning-LarsenEstonia · D13340.340.070.611.010.941
Maksim PaskotsiEstonia · D12500.940.51.150.071.153
Mattias KaitEstonia · M10041.340.720.991.521.71
Vlasiy SinyavskiyEstonia · D9030.50.10.50.81.01
Kevor PalumetsEstonia · M9000.50.30.50.41.52
Marten KuuskEstonia · D8850.10.01.220.921.222
Karol MetsEstonia · D8380.110.01.720.541.295
Rasmus PeetsonEstonia · D7760.930.72.091.042.555
Patrik KristalEstonia · F7131.390.252.522.651.642
Rocco Robert SheinEstonia · M6330.850.281.280.851.711
Markus PoomEstonia · M6041.190.01.040.31.491
Markus SoometsEstonia · M5000.180.02.160.541.441
Ioan YakovlevEstonia · M4781.320.190.751.131.320
Alex Matthias TammEstonia · F4720.950.192.861.530.952
Joseph SalisteEstonia · D4700.00.00.960.572.491
Robi SaarmaEstonia · F4451.620.612.221.211.620
Rauno SappinenEstonia · F4231.491.492.130.850.851
Ilia GruevBulgaria · M9930.360.090.731.181.361
Marin PetkovBulgaria · F6841.840.791.053.032.52
Andrian KraevBulgaria · M6540.960.03.030.961.793
Kristian DimitrovBulgaria · D6410.420.140.70.560.562
Emil TsenovBulgaria · D4630.780.190.970.780.972
Stefan VelkovBulgaria · D4580.390.01.570.791.181
Hristiyan PetrovBulgaria · D4500.20.00.60.01.00
Kiril DespodovBulgaria · F4330.830.421.250.420.420
Lukas PetkovBulgaria · F4090.660.01.11.761.12
Filip KrastevBulgaria · M4021.120.220.672.462.690

Advised props

Maksim Paskotsi 1+ Shots

Maksim Paskotsi has had a shot in 8 of his last 10 for Estonia, at 0.94 per 90 across 1,250 minutes, and he averages 89 minutes a game when he plays.

Estonia take 7.88 shots a game and hit 3.06 on target. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against – worth a look when the market opens.

Karol Mets 1+ Fouls Committed

Karol Mets has committed a foul in 9 of his last 10 for Estonia, at 1.72 per 90 across 838 minutes, and he averages 84 minutes a game when he plays.

Bulgaria hold 40.14% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against – worth a look when the market opens.

Rasmus Peetson to be Carded

Rasmus Peetson has been booked in 5 of his last 10 for Estonia, at 0.58 per 90 across 776 minutes, and he averages 78 minutes a game when he plays.

Estonia pick up 2.25 cards a game and there are 4.25 in their matches. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against – worth a look when the market opens.

Trends

Window shown per line
0/60%Estonia · Last sixEstonia have gone past two and a half goals in 0 of their last six.
0/60%Estonia · Last sixEstonia have gone past three and a half goals in 0 of their last six.
5/5100%Bulgaria · Last sixBulgaria have picked up two or more cards in every one of their last six.
2/1414%Bulgaria · Last 20Bulgaria have won six or more corners in two of their last twenty.
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Build Your Own Estonia vs Bulgaria Bet

Maksim Paskotsi 1+ Shots
Why this betMaksim Paskotsi has had a shot in 8 of his last 10 for Estonia, at 0.94 per 90 across 1,250 minutes, and he averages 89 minutes a game when he plays.Estonia take 7.88 shots a game and hit 3.06 on target. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against – worth a look when the market opens.
Karol Mets 1+ Fouls Committed
Why this betKarol Mets has committed a foul in 9 of his last 10 for Estonia, at 1.72 per 90 across 838 minutes, and he averages 84 minutes a game when he plays.Bulgaria hold 40.14% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against – worth a look when the market opens.
Rasmus Peetson to be Carded
Why this betRasmus Peetson has been booked in 5 of his last 10 for Estonia, at 0.58 per 90 across 776 minutes, and he averages 78 minutes a game when he plays.Estonia pick up 2.25 cards a game and there are 4.25 in their matches. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against – worth a look when the market opens.
Correct Score 1-05/16.00
Why this betOn the venue splits this projects Estonia 1.27 against Bulgaria 1.32, and 1-0 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 11.1%.Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call – it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs Estonia, which is where the board has the match too.
Both Teams to Score6/52.20
Why this betBoth sides are expected to score – 1.35 and 1.49. Our numbers make it 57% against the 45% the price implies.
Over 2.5 Goals11/82.38
Why this betEstonia are expected 1.35 at home and Bulgaria 1.49 away, so 2.84 in the match. Our numbers make it 54% against the 42% the price implies.
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