Bournemouth are 1/3 and will rest most of their first team, so the squad tables below matter more than usual.
Every priced player is listed with his record, because nobody knows the XI until an hour before kick-off.
Where the Odds and the Stats Disagree
| Selection | Odds | Our model | Market | Edge | Tip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 Goals | 2/3 | 74% | 60% | +14 | Tipped |
| Over 3.5 Cards | 5/4 | 57% | 44% | +13 | Tipped |
| D. Elerewe 1+ Shot | 83/100 | 67% | 55% | +12 | Tipped |
| C. McGrandles 2+ Fouls Drawn | 4/5 | 67% | 56% | +11 | Tipped |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 4/5 | 62% | 56% | +6 | Tipped |
| Both Teams to Score | 3/4 | 57% | 57% | -0 | — |
Our model figure is the probability our own data gives the selection. The market figure is the probability implied by the price, which includes the bookmaker’s margin — so an edge of two or three points is within that margin rather than a genuine disagreement. Odds correct at time of writing. 18+ only. Please gamble responsibly — GambleAware.org.
Every market we priced on this tie, including the ones we are not backing. A row without a tip is not a weaker suggestion – it is a market where our figure and the price agree, or where the price is better than our figure.
Three tips: over 3.5 cards at 5/4, the widest gap of the round; under 3.5 goals at 2/3; and over 9.5 corners at 4/5.
Bournemouth vs Lincoln City Prediction
We are predicting 2-0 to Bournemouth. They are 21% to concede on our figures and Lincoln have scored in 9 of their last 20. The tips are the cards and the goals line rather than the result, because a rotated favourite is exactly where a 20-match model reads worst.
Cup ties break what this model reads. Our figures come from each side’s last 20 matches, and in a competition where both managers rest their regulars, those matches were played by different teams. The tips above are all team markets for that reason – corners, cards and goals depend on how two sides play rather than on which 11 players start.
- Carabao Cup tips for every tie in this round
- Value bets across every competition we cover
18+ only. Please gamble responsibly. GambleAware.org
Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.