Ipswich vs Arsenal Betting Tips, Bet Builder, Predictions and Stats

Ipswich vs Arsenal betting tips, bet builder legs and predictions from our stats model, weighing recent form, player props and the latest odds to find the best bets.

5 selections, and rotation is the risk on every one of them. This is a cup tie three days after a league weekend, and both managers will change the side. Each selection below carries the player’s average minutes across his last ten, which is the best guide the data gives to whether he starts.

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Ipswich vs Arsenal Betting Tips

G. Magalhães 1+ Foul Committed — Evens. Gabriel Magalhães has committed a foul in 7 of his last 10 for Arsenal, at 0.91 per 90 across 1,785 minutes.

D. Furlong 1+ Shots — 11/8. Darnell Furlong has had a shot in 6 of his last 10 for Ipswich Town, at 0.69 per 90 across 1,425 minutes.

J. Greaves 1+ Foul Committed — 5/6. Jacob Greaves has committed a foul in 7 of his last 10 for Ipswich Town, at 1.09 per 90 across 1,405 minutes.

B. Saka 3+ Fouls Drawn — 7/4. Bukayo Saka has been fouled 3 times or more in 5 of his last 10 for Arsenal, at 2.08 per 90 across 1,037 minutes.

No Both Teams to Score — 10/11. Our model gives this about 55% against the 52% implied by 10/11, from the two sides’ records across their last 20.

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Potential Bet Builder Legs Based on Our Stats Model

These are legs worth considering inside a bet builder, where several combine into a price worth taking. Every one is a market where our stats model gives the selection more chance of landing than the bookmaker’s odds imply.

Our model figure is the probability our own data gives the selection. The market figure is the probability implied by the price, which includes the bookmaker’s margin – so an edge of two or three points sits inside that margin rather than being a genuine disagreement.

The bet builder below is the one we have picked from these markets.

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Player Props Bet Finder

Every player bet365 have priced for this match, with each player’s record over his last ten alongside the price. No tips, no selections – the numbers and the odds side by side.

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A Note on Rotation

Team news matters more here than in any league fixture. Managers rest players for cup ties, and a hit rate built over ten matches describes a player who has been starting – not one who will start on Tuesday.

The average-minutes figure beside each selection is what we lean on. A player averaging 85 minutes has been playing whole matches; one at 65 has been coming off, and is more likely to be among those rested.

Lineups are confirmed an hour before kick-off, and that is the point to check before staking anything here.

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Ipswich vs Arsenal Prediction

We are predicting 0-2 to Arsenal. The market makes it 11% Ipswich, 21% the draw and 68% Arsenal – the widest gap of Tuesday’s five ties.

Arsenal have won 5 of their last 6 and conceded 6 goals in 10 away matches, 0.60 a game, the meanest record of any side in this round. Ipswich score 1.67 at home but have conceded 8 in 9 there.

Both teams to score is the one to leave alone. Arsenal have seen goals at both ends in only 7 of their last 20, the lowest figure in the round, and the no side is where our figure and the price agree.

Under 2.5 goals reads better than over. The two sides average 2.52 between them, and Arsenal’s away matches have been low-scoring even when they have won them.

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