Our Nottingham Forest vs Leeds bet builder tips, predictions and best bets point at a quiet night.
Forest scored ten goals in eleven home matches last season and Andrew Kitchen books 3.15 a game — the only referee we have measured whose career average is close to the truth. We make it 1-0.
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds
Under 3.5 Cards
7/10Andrew Kitchen has booked 3.13 players a game across 75 Championship matches in his last three seasons and 3.17 across six in the Premier League – the two figures agree almost exactly, so the level makes no difference to him.
Forest matches averaged 3.05 cards and Leeds’s 3.75, putting the two sides at 3.40 between them. The referee brings that down rather than up, which is the opposite of most fixtures we cover.
His published career average of 2.57 is close to the truth for once, because he has far less non-league football in his record than the officials whose figures need correcting.
Under 9.5 Corners
7/10Forest took 4.80 corners a game and Leeds 4.30, for 9.1 between them – both among the lowest figures in our records.
Neither side manufactures them. Both put in 4.20 accurate crosses a match and Forest enter the final third only 47.45 times, the lower of the two.
L. Thomas Is Not the Same Player as Leeds’s Clearances Suggest
Leeds clear the ball 33.3 times a game, which reads as a side under permanent siege. It is not – they kept six clean sheets in twenty and conceded 1.20 a game. The clearance figure is a style, not a symptom, and it is why there is no Leeds defensive prop bet on this page.
Neither Side Is a Card Bet
Forest take 1.60 cards a game of their own and Leeds 1.80, the two lowest own-card figures we have logged this season. With Kitchen refereeing, there is no individual card angle worth backing here.
- 1Under 2.5 Goals10 of 20
- 2No Both Teams to Score9 of 20
- 3Nottingham Forest to Win or Draw13 of 20
Under 2.5 Goals
Forest went under in 10 of their last 20 and Leeds in 11.
Neither side creates much – two big chances a game for Forest, 2.25 for Leeds – and both sit under 48% possession.
No Both Teams to Score
Forest scored 10 goals in 11 home matches last season, at 0.91 a game.
Leeds blanked in six of twenty themselves and clear the ball 33.3 times a game, the highest figure in our records.
Nottingham Forest to Win or Draw
Seven wins and six draws across the twenty, with a home record that reads better than the results suggest.
We make Forest 38% against a market 43.4%, so the win alone is short. The double chance is the honest version of the same view.
Team figures cover each side’s last 20 league matches.
Get £30 in Bonus Bets when you bet £10 on the Carabao Cup
New customers only.
Team figures cover each side’s last 20 league matches.
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds Key Stats and Insights
- 10 goals in 11 home games for Forest last season, at 0.91 a match, against 19 in nine on the road.
- 3.13 cards a game for Kitchen across 75 Championship matches and 3.17 across six in the Premier League — the two figures agree almost exactly, which no other official in our card tips data manages.
- 9.1 corners between the two sides a game, Forest on 4.80 and Leeds 4.30, both among the lowest we have recorded.
- 5 of Forest’s last 20 ended without a goal from them, and 6 of Leeds’s did the same.
- 8 draws in 20 for Leeds, the most drawn record in our data this season.
- 33.3 clearances a game for Leeds, among the highest figures we have logged from any side.
- Under 48% possession for both, at 47.1 and 45.3 — two sides that would rather not have the ball.
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds Bet Builder Tips
Under 2.5 Goals — 10 of Forest’s Last 20, 11 of Leeds’
Forest scored ten goals across eleven home matches at 0.91 a game, and Leeds managed 1.25 a match across their twenty. Neither creates much — two big chances a game for Forest, 2.25 for Leeds — and both take fewer than 4.5 shots on target.
The underlying numbers say the same thing as the results, which is the part that matters. Forest carry 1.31 expected goals for against 1.42 against; Leeds 1.34 and 1.44. Four figures within 0.13 of each other, from two sides who have played each other’s football all season.
What beats it is the cup tie itself. Neither manager can afford a replay in a competition with none, so a goalless hour becomes a chased goal, and Forest’s away record of 19 scored in nine says they have another gear when they need it. The over 2.5 goals line has landed in half of Forest’s matches, so this is a lean rather than a certainty.
No Both Teams to Score — 9 of Forest’s Last 20, 10 of Leeds’s
Forest failed to score in five of twenty and Leeds in six. Both kept five and six clean sheets respectively, and Forest conceded 0.82 a game across eleven at the City Ground.
The leg leans on the home side keeping the visitors out rather than on Forest scoring. Leeds took 1.30 goals a game on the road and conceded 1.50, the weaker half of a season otherwise built on solidity, and 33.3 clearances a match is a side that defends deep and hopes.
Its weakness is the same as the first leg’s and worse. This is close to the same bet twice — a match with few goals usually has one end blank — so backing both shortens the price without spreading the risk. If the tie opens up, both fail together.
Nottingham Forest to Win or Draw — 13 of Forest’s Last 20
Seven wins and six draws across the twenty. At home Forest conceded nine in eleven and kept five clean sheets, and the fixture is at the City Ground where their matches go quiet rather than wrong.
We are not backing Forest to win outright and it is worth saying why. Our model gives them 38% against a market price of 43.4%, so on our own reckoning the favourite is short rather than generous. The double chance is the honest version of the same view — it takes the draw with it, and Leeds have drawn eight of twenty, the most in our data.
What beats it is Leeds’s away form being better than their away numbers. Thirteen goals in ten on the road is not a side that cannot score, and they beat Forest to a point in four of their last six matches. This is the leg doing least work and the one most likely to be taken for granted.
How the Three Fit Together
Three legs, not four, and that is deliberate. Everything else this page argues for is a cards or corners line, and those markets have no hit rate behind them in our data — adding one would mean backing a figure rather than a record. Under 3.5 goals would have been the obvious fourth, but under 2.5 already sits inside it, so it adds nothing but the look of a broader bet. More on how we assemble these on our bet builder tips page.
The two goals legs overlap heavily. A quiet match produces few goals and a blank at one end together, so this is closer to one bet in three parts — which is fine at a longer price, and honest to say.
Get a Free Bet for Nottingham Forest vs Leeds
New customers can claim a welcome offer from any of the bookmakers below and use it on Tuesday night’s tie at the City Ground.
More Carabao Cup and Betting Tips
- Bet builder tips for every fixture we cover
- Compare UK bookmakers before you place it
- Expected goals explained
All betting lines on this page settle at 90 minutes. This tie goes to extra time and penalties if level, and those goals, corners and cards do not count.
18+ only. Please gamble responsibly. GambleAware.org
Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.