Opta Supercomputer World Cup 2026 Predictions Explained

What Does the Opta Supercomputer Predict for the 2026 World Cup?

Opta have run 10,000 simulations of the 2026 World Cup through their supercomputer model, and the results put Spain as clear favourites at 16.1% to lift the trophy. France are second-most likely at 13%, with England third at 11.2% and defending champions Argentina fourth at 10.4%. Portugal (7%), Brazil (6.6%), Germany (5.1%) and Netherlands (3.6%) complete the top eight contenders.

Notably, Brazil and Portugal are both projected meaningfully lower by Opta than they are priced in the bookmaker market — a genuinely interesting contrarian read worth knowing before placing your outright bets.

Information correct as of 1 June 2026 per Opta Analyst. Below we break down the full Opta probability table, what it means for each home nation, where Opta diverges most from the bookmakers, and what the model has historically got right and wrong at past tournaments.

For our full betting analysis, see our World Cup 2026 odds, tips and predictions hub and England World Cup 2026 odds page.

Opta World Cup 2026 Top 10 Probability Table

Rank	Team	Quarter-Finals	Semi-Finals	Final	Winner
1	Spain	52.1%	39%	25.6%	16.1%
2	France	47.9%	33.4%	21.2%	13%
3	England	47.7%	30.3%	19%	11.2%
4	Argentina	45.2%	30.3%	18.1%	10.4%
5	Portugal	40.2%	23.7%	13%	7%
6	Brazil	38.2%	22.1%	12.3%	6.6%
7	Germany	33.8%	20.2%	10.6%	5.1%
8	Netherlands	29.5%	15.2%	7.9%	3.6%
9	Norway	27.2%	14.5%	7.4%	3.5%
10	Belgium	28.9%	12.8%	5.6%	2.4%

Source: Opta Analyst supercomputer (10,000 tournament simulations), information correct as of 1 June 2026.

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How the Opta Supercomputer Works

The Opta supercomputer is one of the most respected predictive models in football analytics. It runs the entire tournament through 10,000 separate simulations, using each team’s underlying attacking and defensive strength ratings calibrated against thousands of historical international matches. Each simulation accounts for:

Team strength ratings based on recent form, qualifying performances, and rolling Elo-style ratings
The actual draw — group composition, fixture sequencing, and knockout path
Home advantage where applicable (for hosts Mexico, USA and Canada)
Squad strength changes versus historical averages

The percentages shown are the proportion of simulations in which each team progresses to that stage. So Spain progressing to the final in 25.6% of simulations means that across 10,000 simulated tournaments, Spain reached the final 2,560 times.

The headline winner probabilities (Spain 16.1%, France 13%, England 11.2%, etc.) sum to roughly 100% across all 48 nations — meaning Opta’s model is treating these as mutually exclusive outcomes (one team wins per simulation).

Key Findings From the Opta Data

Spain’s Lead Over the Field

Spain are clearly out in front. Their 52.1% quarter-final probability is the only figure above 50% in the entire tournament — meaning Opta sees Spain reaching the last eight as more likely than not. Their 39% semi-final probability and 25.6% final probability also lead the field by meaningful margins. This validates the bookmaker market position of Spain as 9/2 favourites and is broadly consistent with Spain’s Euro 2024 win and Nations League final appearance.

England Third Ahead of Argentina

Opta have England at 11.2% to win — ahead of defending champions Argentina at 10.4%. England’s 47.7% quarter-final probability matches Argentina’s, but England progress further more consistently in Opta’s simulations: 30.3% semi-final and 19% final probabilities, marginally ahead of Argentina’s identical 30.3% semi but lower 18.1% final.

The data underlines that this is genuinely England’s strongest pre-tournament position in a generation, validating the PricedUp 7/1 outright England price and Star Sports and 10Bet 8/1 standout prices.

Norway in the Top 10

Erling Haaland’s Norway are 9th in Opta’s rankings with a 3.5% probability of winning — ahead of established powers Belgium (10th, 2.4%), Colombia (11th, 2.1%), and Morocco (12th, 1.9%). Norway’s 27.2% quarter-final probability is genuinely meaningful given they have to navigate a Group I containing France and Senegal. Validates Jake Gray’s dark horse case for Norway in our World Cup 2026 dark horses page.

Germany Lower Than Expected

Germany sit 7th at 5.1% to win — meaningfully behind the top six. Their 33.8% quarter-final probability is well below the other established powers. Opta’s model agrees with Jake Gray’s Germany flop predictions analysis — Germany are priced as a major nation, but the model doesn’t rate them in the genuine contender tier.

Host Nations Struggle in the Model

USA (18th, 1.2%), Mexico (20th, 1%) and Canada (24th, 0.5%) are all rated as very unlikely to win the tournament. Hosting traditionally provides a measurable advantage at major tournaments, but Opta’s model doesn’t see any of the three co-hosts as genuine contenders. Mexico’s 24.2% quarter-final probability is the highest among the three — but their semi-final probability drops sharply to 8.4%, suggesting Opta sees them potentially benefiting from a kind group but lacking the depth to go further.

Opta vs Bookmaker Odds — Where the Model Diverges

The most useful editorial value in the Opta data is comparing it against the bookmaker market. Here’s where the model differs meaningfully from the bookmaker outright prices:

Team	Opta Win %	Bookmaker Best Price	Bookmaker Implied %	Verdict
Spain	16.1%	9/2	18.2%	Bookmaker slightly more bullish
France	13%	5/1	16.7%	Bookmaker more bullish
England	11.2%	8/1 (Star Sports/10Bet)	11.1%	Aligned
Argentina	10.4%	9/1	10%	Aligned
Portugal	7%	10/1 BoyleSports	9.1%	Bookmaker more bullish
Brazil	6.6%	9/1	10%	Bookmaker materially more bullish
Germany	5.1%	16/1	5.9%	Aligned
Netherlands	3.6%	25/1	3.8%	Aligned
Norway	3.5%	14/1	6.7%	Bookmaker more bullish

The two genuinely contrarian Opta calls relative to the bookmakers:

Brazil: Opta’s 6.6% is the equivalent of 14/1, vs the bookmaker 9/1 (implied 10%). That’s a meaningful gap. Carlo Ancelotti’s appointment generated significant pre-tournament optimism, but Opta’s underlying ratings model isn’t convinced. If Opta is right, Brazil are an overlay short at 9/1 — punters backing them are getting worse value than the bookmaker price suggests.

Norway: Opta’s 3.5% is the equivalent of 28/1, vs the bookmaker 14/1. Even bigger gap proportionally. The bookmakers may be over-pricing Norway’s Haaland-led attacking threat without sufficiently accounting for the difficulty of their group (France, Senegal, Iraq).

Portugal: A modest but notable gap. Opta’s 7% implies 13/1, vs the bookmaker 10/1 implied 9.1%. The 2025 Nations League win and favourable Group K draw boost bookmaker pricing, but Opta’s model is slightly more cautious. For our broader Portugal analysis including the bookmaker case for backing them, see our Portugal World Cup 2026 outsider pick page.

Where Opta and the bookmakers agree: England, Argentina, Germany, Netherlands and Spain are all priced consistently across both views.

What the Opta Data Means for Each Home Nation

England (3rd at 11.2%)

The supercomputer rates England as a genuine contender. The 47.7% quarter-final probability, 30.3% semi-final and 19% final probability all support backing England seriously. Combined with the kindest top-seed group draw (Group L with Croatia, Ghana, Panama) and standout 8/1 price at Star Sports and 10Bet, the commercial case for England is the strongest in years.

For Bet Builder backers planning to bet across multiple England matches, LiveScore Bet’s England Bet Builder Money Back offer refunds up to £10 per losing England Bet Builder across the tournament.

Scotland (33rd at 0.2%)

A realistic but tiny 0.2% probability of winning the tournament. More usefully, Opta have Scotland at 8.7% to reach the quarter-finals and 2.9% to reach the semi-finals. The 8.7% quarter-final probability is genuinely meaningful given Scotland are in Group C with Brazil and Morocco — it implies a credible chance of progressing as the best third-placed team or beating Haiti and Morocco to qualify as runners-up. For Scotland punters, the Group C qualifying market (Scotland to qualify at 4/11 with SpreadEx) is the play, not the outright.

Has the Opta Supercomputer Been Accurate at Past Tournaments?

Worth being honest about the model’s track record. Opta’s supercomputer has been broadly accurate but has missed too. Key historical examples:

2014 World Cup: Opta’s model favoured Brazil pre-tournament. Brazil reached the semi-finals before being eliminated 7-1 by eventual winners Germany.
2018 World Cup: France were highly rated by Opta and won the tournament — a successful prediction.
2022 World Cup: Argentina were rated at around 5% to win pre-tournament. Argentina won. France were highly rated and reached the final.
Euro 2024: Spain were among the top picks and won the tournament.

The honest takeaway: the model is one input among several, not a guaranteed forecast. It captures team strength based on data, but can’t predict the human factors that decide tournaments — injuries, refereeing decisions, penalty shootouts, individual moments of brilliance. Greece winning Euro 2004 at 150/1 is the classic example of a tournament outcome no model would have priced.

For punters, the model is most useful as a sanity check against bookmaker prices rather than as a direct betting signal. Where Opta and the bookmakers strongly diverge (Brazil, Norway, Portugal), the divergence is a data point worth thinking about — not a definitive ruling.

How to Use Opta’s Predictions for Your World Cup Bets

Three practical applications for punters:

1. Identify Opta-supported value picks. Where Opta rates a team higher than the bookmaker implied probability, the team may be undervalued. The 3.5% Opta probability for Norway (implied 28/1) vs bookmaker 14/1 actually suggests the opposite direction here — Norway looks SHORT at the bookmakers. But cases like England (11.2% Opta vs 8/1 implied 11.1%) confirm the bookmaker price is roughly right.

2. Identify Opta-flagged risks. Where Opta rates a team lower than the bookmaker implied probability, the bookmaker may be over-pricing. Brazil at Opta 6.6% vs bookmaker implied 10% is the standout — backing Brazil at 9/1 means getting worse expected value than Opta’s data suggests.

3. Pair Opta’s view with offer mechanics. Backing nations the supercomputer rates as deep-tournament threats becomes more valuable when paired with offers that pay across multiple matches:

BoyleSports Tournament Winner offer — £5 in free bets per match your nation wins; ideal for backing a deep-running nation like Spain (52.1% QF), France (47.9% QF) or England (47.7% QF)
SpreadEx World Cup welcome offer — Bet £10 Get up to £100 in staged free bets every time your nation wins
BetVictor 100/1 England to win the World Cup — enhanced odds offer for England backers (Opta’s third favourite)

Opta Supercomputer World Cup 2026 FAQs

What is the Opta supercomputer?

The Opta supercomputer is a predictive model run by Opta Analyst that simulates the entire World Cup 10,000 times to produce probability estimates for each team’s chance of progressing through each tournament stage. It uses attacking and defensive strength ratings calibrated against thousands of historical international matches.

Who does Opta predict will win the 2026 World Cup?

Opta’s supercomputer rates Spain as favourites to win the 2026 World Cup, with a 16.1% probability across 10,000 simulations. France (13%), England (11.2%), Argentina (10.4%), Portugal (7%) and Brazil (6.6%) complete the top six.

What chance does England have of winning the World Cup according to Opta?

According to Opta, England have an 11.2% chance of winning the 2026 World Cup — placing them third in the supercomputer’s rankings. England also have a 47.7% chance of reaching the quarter-finals, 30.3% of reaching the semi-finals, and 19% of reaching the final.

What chance does Scotland have at the World Cup according to Opta?

Opta have Scotland at 0.2% to win the 2026 World Cup. More usefully, Scotland have an 8.7% chance of reaching the quarter-finals and a 2.9% chance of reaching the semi-finals. Scotland are 33rd in Opta’s overall rankings.

Is Opta more bullish or bearish on Portugal than the bookmakers?

Opta is slightly more bearish on Portugal than the bookmakers. Opta give Portugal a 7% chance of winning (equivalent to 13/1), while the bookmaker market prices Portugal at around 10/1 (9.1% implied). The difference is modest but consistent — Opta’s model doesn’t quite share the bookmaker optimism on Portugal’s tournament chances.

What does Opta say about Brazil’s chances?

Opta is materially more bearish on Brazil than the bookmakers. The supercomputer gives Brazil only a 6.6% chance of winning — equivalent to 14/1 — while bookmakers price Brazil at 9/1 (10% implied). Carlo Ancelotti’s appointment has generated bookmaker optimism, but Opta’s underlying ratings don’t fully share that view.

How accurate is the Opta supercomputer historically?

The model has been broadly accurate but has missed too. It correctly favoured France pre-2018 and Spain pre-Euro 2024. It underrated Argentina pre-2022 (only 5%) — Argentina won. It favoured Brazil pre-2014 — Brazil were eliminated 7-1 by Germany in the semi-finals. The model is best used as a sanity check on bookmaker prices, not as a guaranteed forecast.

When was the Opta data published?

Opta’s pre-tournament supercomputer predictions were updated on 1 June 2026, ten days before the World Cup begins on 11 June 2026.

Are co-hosts likely to win the World Cup according to Opta?

No. Opta rates the three co-hosts very low: USA 18th (1.2%), Mexico 20th (1%), Canada 24th (0.5%). Host advantage doesn’t appear to materially shift any of the three into contention in the supercomputer’s simulations.

Should I bet on the Opta favourite?

That depends on whether the bookmaker price represents value vs Opta’s probability. Spain are 9/2 with bookmakers (implied 18.2%) but Opta give them 16.1% — meaning the bookmaker price is slightly LESS than what Opta’s data suggests. England at 8/1 (11.1% implied) is almost exactly Opta’s 11.2% — perfectly aligned, so neither over nor undervalued. For value-led punters, the alignment cases (like England) and the divergence cases (Brazil being potentially overvalued) are both worth knowing.