Our Newcastle vs Liverpool bet builder tips lead with over 2.5 goals. Newcastle’s home matches have produced 3.8 goals a game between the two sides — twenty scored and eighteen conceded across ten at St James’ Park — and they have kept three clean sheets in twenty.
Alexander Isak returns to face his former club having joined Liverpool, in a fixture where the two squads have sold £350m of players between them this summer.
Team figures cover each side’s last 20 league matches.
Newcastle vs Liverpool Key Stats
- 2 draws in 20 for Newcastle, the fewest of any side in our data
- 3.8 goals a game at St James’ Park, from 20 scored and 18 conceded in ten
- 3.44 tackles and 16.59 duels per 90 for Amadou Bamba, both the highest figures we have recorded
- £275m of players sold by Newcastle, including Tonali, Guimarães and Gordon
- 2.10 cards a game collected by Newcastle against Liverpool’s 1.20, the widest gap in our data
- 12.40 tackles a game for Liverpool, the fewest of any side we have covered
- 0.86 goals per 90 for William Osula, the highest rate in the fixture
Why Do Newcastle Draw So Few Matches?
Because they concede almost as freely as they score. Their record reads eight wins, two draws and ten defeats — the fewest draws of any side in our data, against Bournemouth’s eleven at the other extreme, and ten defeats is the joint worst on any of our pages.
At home they score 2.00 goals a game and concede 1.80. That 1.80 is the second highest figure we have recorded behind Tottenham, and they have kept three clean sheets in twenty with a goals prevented figure of -0.21.
Matches involving Newcastle rarely finish level and rarely finish quietly. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of their last twenty.
Which Players Are Worth Backing in Newcastle vs Liverpool?
William Osula carries three of our four Newcastle selections, largely because so little else is left. He has drawn a foul in five of his last six at 2.15 per 90, scores 0.86 goals per 90 — the highest rate in the fixture — and has hit the target in four of six.
| Selection | Per 90 | Last six | Cleared |
|---|---|---|---|
| Osula 1+ foul drawn | 2.15 | 1, 2, 3, 0, 2, 1 | 5 of 6 |
| Osula 1+ shot on target | 1.29 | 0, 2, 1, 2, 0, 1 | 4 of 6 |
| Mac Allister 2+ tackles | 2.00 | 3, 2, 1, 2, 2, 0 | 4 of 6 |
| Gakpo 2+ shots | 2.80 | 2, 2, 0, 5, 0, 5 | 4 of 6 |
| Osula anytime scorer | 0.86 | 0, 2, 0, 1, 0, 1 | 3 of 6 |
| Ramsey 2+ tackles | 2.76 | 5, 5, 1, 0, 3, 1 | 3 of 6 |
Jacob Ramsey is the one to be careful with. His 2.76 tackles per 90 looks like Newcastle’s best defensive number and it comes from two five-tackle games at the front of the run.
Why Is Amadou Bamba Not in the Bet Builder Tip?
Because his rates are the best we have ever recorded and his sample is forty minutes a game. He makes 3.44 tackles and wins 16.59 player duels per 90, both higher than any player in our data — Elliot Anderson is next at 14.50 duels.
Those figures come from one full match in eighteen appearances. His last six tackles read 3, 0, 1, 0, 6 and 1, so two or more in two of them.
He starts here, so the rates may well hold. They are simply not proven at ninety minutes, and a build leg needs more than a strong average from short cameos.
Newcastle vs Liverpool Team News
The two clubs have sold around £350m of players this summer and nine of them appeared in our statistical tables.
Newcastle lost their entire midfield: Sandro Tonali to Tottenham for £108m, Bruno Guimarães to Arsenal for £87.5m and Anthony Gordon to Barcelona for £80m. Guimarães is the loss that shows most in the data — he featured in five of our seven tables and led the whole fixture for fouls drawn at 3.14 per 90, with a run of 3, 5, 5, 5, 3, 2.
Joelinton is out with a muscle injury having led Newcastle for both fouls and cards. Anthony Elanga is in the expected eleven with a return date of 23 August, the day of the match.
Liverpool lost Mohamed Salah to Trabzonspor, Ibrahima Konaté to Real Madrid and Andrew Robertson to Tottenham, all on free transfers. Hugo Ekitiké is out until January with an achilles injury having led the fixture for shots at 3.54 per 90, and Curtis Jones is joining Inter Milan.
What Is the Prediction for Newcastle vs Liverpool?
We make it 1-2 to Liverpool, which is the most likely scoreline within a Liverpool win. Our model gives them 45%, Newcastle 32% and the draw 23%, from expected goals of 1.72 to 2.07. Over 2.5 goals comes out at 73% and both teams to score at the same figure.
The market has Liverpool at 46%, so we are within a point. That is the third fixture this weekend where our model has effectively matched the price, after Everton against Crystal Palace and Brighton against Aston Villa, and all three were meetings between two established Premier League sides.
Where our model has missed badly this weekend — Manchester City against Bournemouth by thirty points, Arsenal against Coventry by fifteen — the fixture involved a promoted club or a side with an extreme record. We would rather show you that pattern than claim an edge we cannot demonstrate.
Newcastle vs Liverpool Card Stats and Referee
Newcastle collect 2.10 cards a game to Liverpool’s 1.20, the widest gap between two sides in our data, and their matches produce 4.55 across both teams against Liverpool’s 3.40.
Stuart Attwell books 3.28 players a game, which sits mid-range among the eight Premier League officials we have covered — their figures run from Farai Hallam on 2.57 to Jarred Gillett on 3.45. On the two sides’ records over 3.5 cards reads 56%; on his it reads 42%.
There is no individual card angle left. With Joelinton injured, Dan Burn leads Newcastle on 0.57 per 90 from two bookings in six matches, and Alexis Mac Allister leads Liverpool on 0.30.
Newcastle vs Liverpool Kick-Off Time and TV Channel
Newcastle vs Liverpool kicks off at 16:30 BST on Sunday 23 August 2026 at St James’ Park. Stuart Attwell referees. SKY SPORTS MAIN EVENT.
Why Do We Publish the Last Six Matches Rather Than Only an Average?
Because an average tells you the middle of a player’s range, while the sequence tells you whether he actually clears the line the bookmaker has set. Those are different questions, and the second is the one being priced when you place the bet.
Amadou Bamba is the clearest case we have had. His 3.44 tackles per 90 is the highest figure in our entire dataset, and his last six read 3, 0, 1, 0, 6 and 1 — two or more in two matches out of six.
More Football Tips and Guides
The Osula and Mac Allister selections sit alongside the rest of our tackles and fouls tips, and Gakpo belongs with our shots on target tips.
For the full build and the same treatment across every match on the card, see our bet builder tips and the Premier League tips page.
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.
