The highest-carding pairing of this round at 4.35 a game between the sides.
Every priced player is listed below with his last 20 matches, since both managers will rotate.
Where the Odds and the Stats Disagree
| Selection | Odds | Our model | Market | Edge | Tip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O. McBurnie 2+ Fouls Drawn | 9/4 | 50% | 31% | +19 | Tipped |
| L. Coyle 2+ Fouls Drawn | 9/4 | 50% | 31% | +19 | Tipped |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 17/20 | 56% | 54% | +2 | Tipped |
| Over 3.5 Cards | 8/11 | 58% | 58% | +0 | Tipped |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 2/3 | 77% | 60% | +17 | — |
Our model figure is the probability our own data gives the selection. The market figure is the probability implied by the price, which includes the bookmaker’s margin — so an edge of two or three points is within that margin rather than a genuine disagreement. Odds correct at time of writing. 18+ only. Please gamble responsibly — GambleAware.org.
Every market we priced on this tie, including the ones we are not backing. A row without a tip is not a weaker suggestion – it is a market where our figure and the price agree, or where the price is better than our figure.
Two tips: over 3.5 cards at 8/11 and under 2.5 goals at 17/20. Paul Tierney’s 3.76 a game pulls the card line down from what the sides’ own records would give.
Sunderland vs Hull City Prediction
We are predicting 1-0 to Sunderland. Both sides keep clean sheets – Hull 7 in 20 and Sunderland 6 – and the combined goals figure of 2.45 is among the lowest on the card.
Cup ties break what this model reads. Our figures come from each side’s last 20 matches, and in a competition where both managers rest their regulars, those matches were played by different teams. The tips above are all team markets for that reason – corners, cards and goals depend on how two sides play rather than on which 11 players start.
- Carabao Cup tips for every tie in this round
- Value bets across every competition we cover
Tomorrow
17:45Club Brugge vs Aston VillaChampions League6 tips19:45Crystal Palace vs MiddlesbroughCarabao Cup4 tips19:45Bournemouth vs Lincoln CityCarabao Cup5 tips19:45Leyton Orient vs Bradford CityCarabao Cup4 tips19:45Millwall vs Newcastle UnitedCarabao Cup6 tips19:45Sunderland vs Hull CityCarabao Cup4 tips18+ only. Please gamble responsibly. GambleAware.org
Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.